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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 72

Denver Broncos 13 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.60 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP