4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2016-02-07 · 18:30 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 💨 Windy Spread -4.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CAR
75.6%
DEN
24.4%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • CAR offense: +0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to CAR: Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.095 vs Cam Newton (CAR) +0.276 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: -0.153 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

CAR 23
–
DEN 17
Projected margin: CAR by 6 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 21

CAR

Jared Allen DE Probable Foot
Thomas Davis LB Probable Forearm
Mike Tolbert RB Probable Knee

DEN

Owen Daniels TE Probable Knees
Todd Davis LB Probable Shoulder
Chris Harris CB Probable Shoulder
Peyton Manning QB Probable Foot
Brandon Marshall LB Probable Ankle
Evan Mathis G Probable Ankle
Darian Stewart S Probable Knee
Louis Vasquez G Probable Knee
T.J. Ward S Probable Ankle
DeMarcus Ware LB Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 10
–
DEN 24

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:47 FG DEN (10:47) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CAR 0 – DEN 3
  • Q1 06:34 TD DEN (6:34) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 4 for -11 yards (58-V.Miller). FUMBLES (58-V.Miller) [58-V.Miller], RECOVERED by DEN-97-M.Jackson at CAR -1. TOUCHDOWN. V.Miller credited with 15-yd sack. CAR 0 – DEN 9
  • Q2 11:28 TD CAR (11:28) 28-J.Stewart left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – DEN 10
  • Q2 07:01 FG DEN (7:01) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CAR 7 – DEN 13
  • Q3 08:22 FG DEN (8:22) 8-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CAR 7 – DEN 16
  • Q4 10:26 FG CAR (10:26) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 10 – DEN 16
  • Q4 03:13 TD DEN (3:13) 22-C.Anderson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. CAR 10 – DEN 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 12 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 92%

    (10:47) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:27) 8-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:34) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to CAR 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 15 for -1 yards (36-K.Webster).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 20%

    (3:19) 8-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to DEN 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 12 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:27) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CAR 42, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 40 for -2 yards (52-C.Nelson). PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 37. T.Ginn charged with return for 0-yds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 12 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 14%

    (9:29) 8-B.Nortman punts 28 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-J.Norwood to CAR 14 for 61 yards (97-M.Addison). J.Norwood's 61-yd punt return sets a new Super Bowl record. The previous record was 45-yds by John Taylor in Super Bowl XXIII.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (7:01) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:25) 8-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (2:02) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 78%

    (10:54) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (8:22) 8-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:24) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to CAR 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 34 for 3 yards (52-C.Nelson). DEN-48-S.Barrett was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-33-T.Boston, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 34.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 18 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:26) 8-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to DEN 32, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 86%

    (10:26) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:07) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to CAR 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:15) 8-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:59) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to CAR 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 28 yards to CAR 27, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.