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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 16

Denver Broncos 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.10 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model