Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 85

Denver Broncos 16 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to CAR 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 34 for 3 yards (52-C.Nelson). DEN-48-S.Barrett was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-33-T.Boston, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 34.

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model