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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 21

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model