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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 72

Denver Broncos 16 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to CAR 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.55 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model