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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 10 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 8-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.96 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP