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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 55

Denver Broncos 24 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 28 yards to CAR 27, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.48 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -1.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model