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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to CAR 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 15 for -1 yards (36-K.Webster).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP