Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 89

Denver Broncos 10 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CAR 42, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 40 for -2 yards (52-C.Nelson). PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 37. T.Ginn charged with return for 0-yds.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.34 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model