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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 1

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 25-L.McCoy left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. No. 82 Jim Dray (BUF) injured on play.

The Three Options

GO +3.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 1, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model