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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

BUF
54.1%
BAL
45.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.163 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Tyrod Taylor (BUF): +0.144 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

BUF 23
–
BAL 22
Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

BUF

Colt Anderson S Out Foot
Kevon Seymour CB Out Hamstring
Cardale Jones QB Questionable right Shoulder
Ryan Groy G Questionable Ribs
Jonathan Williams RB Questionable Ribs

BAL

Kenneth Dixon RB Out Knee
Elvis Dumervil LB Out Foot
Jerraud Powers CB Out Ankle
Dennis Pitta TE Questionable Finger
John Urschel G Questionable Shoulder
Maxx Williams TE Questionable Knee
Shareece Wright CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 7
–
BAL 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:41 FG BAL (:41) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BUF 0 – BAL 3
  • Q2 10:22 TD BAL (10:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 17-M.Wallace for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – BAL 9
  • Q2 03:06 TD BUF (3:06) 25-L.McCoy left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. No. 82 Jim Dray (BUF) injured on play. BUF 6 – BAL 10
  • Q4 05:42 FG BAL (5:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BUF 7 – BAL 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:52) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to BUF 32, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 18 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:42) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to BAL 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-D.Hester to BAL 34 for 8 yards (20-C.Graham).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (5:30) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to BAL 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 15 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 69%

    (:41) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:07) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to BAL 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (3:06) 25-L.McCoy left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. No. 82 Jim Dray (BUF) injured on play.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 57%

    (10:53) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles left end ran ob at BAL 31 for 6 yards. PENALTY on BAL-22-J.Smith, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 31.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 71%

    (8:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 19%

    (7:43) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to BUF 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 15-B.Tate to BUF 28 for 21 yards (46-M.Cox).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:18) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to BAL 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 43%

    (:46) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 28-T.West pushed ob at BUF 42 for no gain (55-J.Hughes).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 26%

    (14:19) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback. PENALTY on BUF-65-G.Sanborn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 18 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:59) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to BUF 35, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-R.Bush.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:46) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 37 yards to BAL 22, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 16 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 90%

    (5:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 18 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:43) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to BAL 43, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-D.Hester to BAL 36 for -7 yards (20-C.Graham).