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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(4:18) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to BAL 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.38 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP