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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(14:19) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback. PENALTY on BUF-65-G.Sanborn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.36 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP