4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(11:46) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 37 yards to BAL 22, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.63 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP