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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 19

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(5:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.93 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 19, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model