Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(13:07) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to BAL 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.41 EP
67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model