Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 72

Denver Broncos 7 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to CAR 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 32 for 4 yards (14-C.Latimer). PENALTY on CAR-26-D.Worley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.18 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model