Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to CAR: Trevor Siemian (DEN) -0.185 vs Cam Newton (CAR) +0.233 EPA/dropback
- DEN defense: -0.189 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- CAR offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- DEN offense: -0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- CAR defense: -0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
CAR
DEN
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:20 TD CAR (7:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 13-K.Benjamin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-70-T.Turner, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty to be assessed on the kickoff. CAR 6 – DEN 0
- Q2 12:23 TD DEN (12:23) 32-A.Janovich right guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DEN 6
- Q2 03:07 TD CAR (3:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – DEN 7
- Q2 00:07 FG CAR (:07) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. Penalty on DEN-21-A.Talib, Defensive Offside, declined. CAR 17 – DEN 7
- Q4 15:00 TD DEN (15:00) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left to 22-C.Anderson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 17 – DEN 13
- Q4 09:30 TD DEN (9:30) (Shotgun) 22-C.Anderson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 17 – DEN 20
- Q4 04:25 FG CAR (4:25) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. CAR 20 – DEN 21
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 44%
(15:00) 8-A.Lee punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(1:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to CAR 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 32 for 4 yards (14-C.Latimer). PENALTY on CAR-26-D.Worley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 32.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EPp(convert) 69%
(11:33) 8-A.Lee punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(7:46) 8-A.Lee punts 76 yards to DEN 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 24 for 11 yards. PENALTY on DEN-52-C.Nelson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 24.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(5:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to CAR 31, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 39 for 8 yards (36-K.Webster).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 17 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(4:10) 8-A.Lee punts 61 yards to DEN 7, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-J.Norwood pushed ob at DEN 22 for 15 yards (55-D.Mayo).
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Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%
(10:46) 22-C.Anderson up the middle to CAR 1 for 1 yard (59-L.Kuechly).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 18 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%
(4:25) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 17 at the 82 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(3:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to CAR 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-57-D.Watson.