Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 89

Carolina Panthers 17 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 8-A.Lee punts 76 yards to DEN 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 24 for 11 yards. PENALTY on DEN-52-C.Nelson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 24.

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.53 EP
64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 89, worth -5.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model