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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 85

Denver Broncos 7 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to CAR 31, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 39 for 8 yards (36-K.Webster).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model