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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 17 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 8-A.Lee punts 61 yards to DEN 7, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-J.Norwood pushed ob at DEN 22 for 15 yards (55-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.70 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model