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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 2
Denver Broncos 14 – Carolina Panthers 17
What Actually Happened
(10:46) 22-C.Anderson up the middle to CAR 1 for 1 yard (59-L.Kuechly).
The Three Options
GO
+4.23 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.33 EP
- 40% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 2, worth +1.12 EP
KICK
+2.06 EP
- 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT
-0.02 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
