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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 18

Carolina Panthers 17 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.74 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 18, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model