Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 82

Denver Broncos 21 – Carolina Panthers 20

(3:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to CAR 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-57-D.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.01 EP
75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model