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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-A.Lee punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.03 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP