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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 10

Houston Texans 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 8-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.92 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 10, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model