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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CHI
43.6%
HOU
56.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.200 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Jay Cutler (CHI): +0.029 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CHI

Josh Bellamy WR Questionable Shoulder
Deon Bush S Questionable Hamstring
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Groin
Kyle Fuller CB Questionable Knee
Paul Lasike RB Questionable Wrist
Kyle Long T Questionable Shoulder
Deonte Thompson WR Questionable Knee
Cornelius Washington DE Questionable Ankle
Kevin White WR Questionable Hamstring

HOU

Duane Brown T Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 14
–
HOU 23

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:05 TD CHI (7:05) 33-J.Langford right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 11:28 FG HOU (11:28) 8-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. CHI 7 – HOU 3
  • Q2 03:21 TD HOU (3:21) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – HOU 9
  • Q2 00:13 TD CHI (:13) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle to 19-E.Royal for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – HOU 10
  • Q3 12:20 FG HOU (12:20) 8-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. (The ball was tipped by 27) CHI 14 – HOU 13
  • Q4 12:49 TD HOU (12:49) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 15-W.Fuller for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – HOU 19
  • Q4 06:14 FG HOU (6:14) 8-N.Novak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. CHI 14 – HOU 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:30) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to CHI 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-E.Royal pushed ob at HOU 40 for 31 yards (9-S.Lechler).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 75%

    (2:49) 6-J.Cutler FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 31, and recovers at HOU 31. 6-J.Cutler to HOU 31 for no gain (55-B.McKinney).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (11:28) 8-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to HOU 30, Center-48-P.Scales. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 39 for 9 yards (82-L.Paulsen).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:55) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to HOU 17, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:50) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to CHI 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-E.Royal to CHI 25 for no gain (31-C.James, 52-B.Peters).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (12:20) 8-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. (The ball was tipped by 27)

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:09) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to HOU 31, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:04) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to CHI 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-E.Royal to CHI 39 for 7 yards (31-C.James).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 60%

    (7:50) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 29 yards to HOU 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:43) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to CHI 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-E.Royal to CHI 14 for 2 yards (35-E.Pleasant).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:45) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to HOU 36, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 15 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:10) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to HOU 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 34 for 13 yards (52-C.Jones; 58-J.Anderson).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%

    (6:14) 8-N.Novak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:56) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to HOU 32, Center-48-P.Scales. 34-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 39 for 7 yards (52-C.Jones). PENALTY on HOU-45-J.Prosch, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 39. Penalty on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:06) 9-S.Lechler punts 35 yards to CHI 21, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:18) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep right to 13-K.White (24-J.Joseph).