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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 77

Chicago Bears 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to HOU 30, Center-48-P.Scales. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 39 for 9 yards (82-L.Paulsen).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model