Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 58

Chicago Bears 7 – Houston Texans 10

(1:55) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to HOU 17, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.34 EP
62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model