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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 10

Houston Texans 10 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 8-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. (The ball was tipped by 27)

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 10, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model