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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 77

Chicago Bears 14 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to HOU 31, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model