4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 73

Houston Texans 13 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to CHI 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-E.Royal to CHI 39 for 7 yards (31-C.James).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model