4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 70

Houston Texans 13 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to CHI 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-E.Royal to CHI 14 for 2 yards (35-E.Pleasant).

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.28 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP