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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 20

Houston Texans 20 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 8-N.Novak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model