Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 55

Chicago Bears 14 – Houston Texans 23

(:18) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep right to 13-K.White (24-J.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.48 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -0.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model