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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 78

Houston Texans 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to CHI 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-E.Royal pushed ob at HOU 40 for 31 yards (9-S.Lechler).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 35, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model