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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 31

Chicago Bears 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 6-J.Cutler FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 31, and recovers at HOU 31. 6-J.Cutler to HOU 31 for no gain (55-B.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model