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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(:09) 3-B.Nortman punts 67 yards to GB 3, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.41 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP