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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 13:00 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

GB
43.0%
JAX
57.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): -0.074 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 21
–
JAX 22
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

GB

Josh Hawkins CB Out Hamstring
Chris Banjo S Doubtful Hamstring
Jayrone Elliott LB Doubtful Hamstring
Trevor Davis WR Doubtful Shoulder
Jeff Janis WR Questionable Hand
Justin Perillo TE Questionable Knee

JAX

Chris Ivory RB Questionable Calf
Jared Odrick DE Questionable Jaw

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 27
–
JAX 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:45 TD GB (9:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 03:43 TD JAX (3:43) (Shotgun) 24-T.Yeldon up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – JAX 6
  • Q2 07:52 FG JAX (7:52) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. GB 7 – JAX 10
  • Q2 03:14 TD GB (3:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-J.Nelson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – JAX 10
  • Q2 01:14 TD JAX (1:14) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 80-J.Thomas for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – JAX 16
  • Q2 00:20 TD GB (:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [20-J.Ramsey]. Penalty on JAX-31-D.House, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. GB 20 – JAX 17
  • Q3 10:14 FG GB (10:14) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 24 – JAX 17
  • Q3 06:19 FG JAX (6:19) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. GB 24 – JAX 20
  • Q4 12:04 FG GB (12:04) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 27 – JAX 20
  • Q4 05:17 FG JAX (5:17) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. GB 27 – JAX 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 90%

    (10:51) 27-E.Lacy up the middle to JAX 11 for 9 yards (39-T.Gipson).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:06) 3-B.Nortman punts 58 yards to GB 3, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:16) 10-J.Schum punts 56 yards to JAX 38, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-R.Greene to GB 48 for 14 yards (50-B.Martinez).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:17) 10-J.Schum punts 48 yards to JAX 21, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (:09) 3-B.Nortman punts 67 yards to GB 3, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:51) 10-J.Schum punts 46 yards to JAX 47, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (12:12) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson to GB 40 for 8 yards (42-M.Burnett).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (7:52) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (10:14) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 89%

    (6:19) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (12:04) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 30%

    (8:45) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson to GB 45 for 4 yards (23-D.Randall).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 58%

    (7:29) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson to GB 29 for 9 yards (36-L.Gunter).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 13 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 72%

    (5:17) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:23) 10-J.Schum punts 34 yards to JAX 47, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-20-J.Ramsey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 47.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 94%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Hurns to GB 15 for -1 yards (23-D.Randall).