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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:12) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson to GB 40 for 8 yards (42-M.Burnett).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model