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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 8

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.85 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP