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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 21

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.16 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model