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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 2

Green Bay Packers 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +3.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.93 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 2, worth +0.89 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP