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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(8:45) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson to GB 45 for 4 yards (23-D.Randall).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.69 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model