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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 32

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.08 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model