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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 10-J.Schum punts 34 yards to JAX 47, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-20-J.Ramsey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 47.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.45 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model