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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 14

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Hurns to GB 15 for -1 yards (23-D.Randall).

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.29 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP