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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 94

Green Bay Packers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 10-J.Schum punts 56 yards to JAX 38, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-R.Greene to GB 48 for 14 yards (50-B.Martinez).

The Three Options

GO -3.35 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.08 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 94, worth -5.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -3.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 52, worth -3.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model