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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(14:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 82-T.Smith to LA 36 for -2 yards (25-T.McDonald). Caught LA 36 0-yd. YAC.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.89 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model